The former agency headquarters lost 97% of its value after foreclosure, turning years of refinancing pressure into a completed repricing event.

That pressure is spreading as bond volatility makes CRE capital harder to price and harder to secure.

At the same time, home prices are falling again, buyers are rejecting high asking prices, and sellers are pulling listings instead of cutting.

Builders are facing the same problem as new home inventory rises and sales cool.

Here’s where buyer demand is thinning out and where pressured sellers are starting to lose leverage:

🏚️ D.C. Office Value Drops 97%

📊 Bond Turbulence Hits CRE Deals

🚪 Sellers Pull Listings Near Record High

🏗️ New Home Supply Jumps to 9.4 Months

🏙️ D.C. Condo Owners Become Landlords

Video of the Week: How to Find Value-Add MultifamilyDeals in 2026

Chart of the Week: Mortgage Delinquencies by Neighbourhood Income

Podcast of the Week: Forced Selling Has Begun for This Part of the Real Estate Market

Vacant D.C. Office Value Drops 97% After Foreclosure

A former D.C. agency headquarters was reappraised from $18.1M to just $550K after foreclosure, showing how fast office values can collapse when a building loses its tenant and refinancing options disappear.

Bond Market Turbulence Hits CRE Deals

CRE transaction momentum is weakening as Treasury yields rise, debt costs stay elevated, and the pool of bidders gets shallower, making it harder for owners to refinance, sell, or justify old valuations.

Sellers Pull Listings at Near-Record Rates

A near-record 5.8% of U.S. home listings were pulled off the market in April as buyers rejected high prices, forcing sellers to either cut, wait, relist, or rent instead.

New Home Inventory Builds as Sales Fall

New home sales dropped 6.2% month over month and 11.3% year over year in April, pushing supply up to 9.4 months and adding pressure on builders to compete for fewer buyers.

D.C. Condo Owners Become Reluctant Landlords

D.C. condo sales have fallen to a decade low while new condo rentals hit a decade high, showing how stalled exits are turning would-be sellers into landlords just to avoid taking a loss.

Video of the week

Read more

That is where stress starts turning into leverage.

The State of Private Credit

Free Download

The private credit market is busy, defensive, and under more scrutiny than it’s been in years.

9fin’s state of private credit 2026 whitepaper cuts through the noise — covering BDC redemption dynamics, software exposure, secondary market activity, and documentation risk post-First Brands, with a forward view on where H2 opportunity sits.

Written by the team that covers this market daily.

Download for free today

Zombie foreclosures are still sitting in the market, mortgage delinquencies are climbing in multiple states, and home purchase loans have dropped to a 12-year low.

At the same time, new-home sales are getting hit by surging rates and volatility, while office vacancy is only improving because buildings are being removed from the market.

Even JPMorgan is preparing to liquidate a 24-year-old real estate fund, which says something about how patient capital is getting.

Here’s where buyer demand is thinning out and where pressured sellers are starting to lose leverage:

🧟 Zombie Foreclosures Hit Double Digits

🏚️ Mortgage Delinquencies Climb in Vermont

📉 Purchase Loans Fall to 12-Year Low

🏦 JPMorgan Liquidates $1B Real Estate Fund

🏗️ Office Vacancy Falls as Buildings Vanish

Video of the Week: 5 States Quietly Adding an Exit Tax on Homeowners (Do This Before It’s Official)

Chart of the Week: Concession Dollars Hit a Record High

Podcast of the Week: 5 Paid-Off Rentals vs. 15 Rentals with Mortgages

Zombie Foreclosures Remain Concentrated by State

Vacant pre-foreclosure properties remain a small share of the national foreclosure pipeline, but states like Vermont, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and New York show where property-level distress is already visible.

Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in Multiple States

Homeowner stress is climbing fastest in states like Vermont, Delaware, Louisiana, Florida, and Texas, creating an early warning signal for where future foreclosure pressure could build.

Home Purchase Loans Fall to a 12-Year Low

Buyer demand is freezing across most major metros as high rates and elevated prices crush affordability, leaving fewer financed buyers available to absorb distressed inventory.

JPMorgan Moves to Liquidate 24-Year-Old Real Estate Fund

Institutional real estate stress is turning into fund-level liquidation, with JPMorgan winding down a $1B-plus core-plus fund after years of pressure on valuations and liquidity.

Office Vacancy Falls for the Wrong Reason

Office vacancy edged lower because demolitions and conversions removed more space than developers added, while actual tenant demand slowed sharply and absorption fell from the previous quarter.

Read more

By the time the market peaked, that number was $1,100.

Same building. Same 448 units. Same tenants.

Just a different cost structure, and one nobody had modeled.

That building survived because it carried very little debt.

But Irwin watched plenty of deals structured differently.

Bridge debt. Low going-in cap rates. Heavy renovation budgets.

Deals that needed, as he put it, “a perfect rocket trajectory” just to break even.

When insurance quadruples and a $10,000 renovation job becomes a $23,000 job for identical scope, a deal built on tight assumptions only needs one cost line to move.

Irwin started as a CPA, moved through multifamily management, loan origination, and asset management, and has been involved in more than $5 billion of transactions across apartments, hotels, industrial, office, and construction lending.

He has seen what works in a model, what survives in the field, and what breaks when the costs move.

That is what pulled him toward small-bay industrial.

Why the lease structure changes the math

In multifamily, the landlord absorbs operating cost increases.

Insurance goes up, the landlord absorbs it.

Taxes go up, the landlord absorbs it.

That is the exposure that cracked deals when costs moved faster than rents could follow.

In small-bay industrial, most leases are triple-net.

Tenants pay their proportional share of building operating costs based on square footage.

A 10,000-square-foot tenant in a 100,000-square-foot building pays 10% of what it costs to run that building.

In a true triple-net lease, those cost increases are meant to pass through rather than sit entirely on the owner’s side.

Lease length compounds this advantage. Apartment leases reset annually.

Industrial leases run three, five, seven, or ten years. And industrial tenants typically invest heavily in their space — equipment, employees tied to the location, supplier routes, customer relationships.

Moving creates business disruption that can cost far more than any rent savings.

What the spreadsheet cannot show you

Irwin usually does tenant interviews before closing on a building.

His questions: how long have employees been with the company, how far do they commute, where are the suppliers, where are the customers, how does the tenant move goods.

His team owns a building about two miles from a Honda factory in Marysville, Ohio.

Through tenant interviews they discovered that auto suppliers need to be within a certain proximity of the plant.

When supply contracts come up for rebid, competing vendors want to tour that building because winning the contract requires that location.

The question he wants answered is simple: why does this tenant need this specific building?

A compelling answer means a sticky tenant.

A weak answer is a different conversation entirely.

What a careful operator looks like

Irwin went 18 to 19 months without buying anything when rates were moving.

He thinks they probably could have found deals.

At the time he had uncertainty, and he was unwilling to ask investors to share it with him.

He over-reserves on every deal.

More cash held back for tenant improvements, leasing commissions, and capital work than a clean pro forma would suggest.

It lowers the projected return but also removes the chance of going back to investors for more capital.

When roof work on one building took three years due to post-COVID material backlogs, the completed project had excess cash.

Irwin returned $500,000 to investors.

Some thought they had been paid their distribution twice.

That same “no surprises” mindset shows up in his reporting.

Every month, investors receive the full property financial package: the balance sheet, income statement, general ledger, accounts receivable, accounts payable, rent roll, and property bank statements.

Some investors ask if they really need all of it.

His answer is simple:

“You’re an owner. You should have it every month.”

Questions to ask before you invest

Before looking at the projected IRR, ask what the deal pays from income already in place.

You want to know the day-one cash distribution because it shows whether the return is supported by current operations or depends mostly on future execution.

Then ask the operator the downside question:

Would you own this property forever?

That the real test.

If the upside case falls short, the property still needs to cash flow.

The goal is simple:

"Do not lose my principal"

Insurance going from $250 to $1,100 per unit is a cost category doing what cost categories do.

The question is whether the deal was built to absorb it.

Boring real estate, careful underwriting, and fewer assumptions that need to go perfectly right.

If that sounds like the kind of passive investment you’d be interested in, you can join Peykar Capital’s investor update list to learn more about his approach and see future opportunities as they become available.

Foreclosure filings rose 18% from a year ago in April, but the more important number is what happened deeper in the pipeline.

Foreclosure starts were up 12%, and completed foreclosures jumped 42%, which means more of the distress is moving from notices into actual lender inventory.

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

That pressure is showing up first in places like Delaware, South Carolina, and Florida, where taxes, insurance, HOA costs, and thin equity cushions are making it harder for some owners to hold on.

At the same time, Ginnie Mae is watching “risk-layered” FHA portfolios, with lower credit scores, higher DTIs, and elevated LTVs sitting inside a market where refinancing is harder and selling is no longer a clean escape.

This is where credit stress stops being theoretical.

Here’s where foreclosures are becoming inventory, and where the next layer of distressed supply is already starting to surface:

📉 Foreclosure Filings Rise 18%

🏢 CRE Sales Fall 33% as Debt Costs Climb

⚠️ Ginnie Mae Flags Risky FHA Portfolios

🏘️ San Antonio Values Drop as Taxes Rise

🔗 UK Lender Collapse Hits U.S. Credit Firms

Video of the Week: Pending Sales Just Spiked — And It’s Bad News

Chart of the Week: April Foreclosure Activity Report

Podcast of the Week: Flood Of Home Foreclosures Ahead This Year As “Dam Is Bursting”

Foreclosures Move Deeper Into Inventory

Foreclosure filings rose 18% year over year in April, but the sharper signal is that foreclosure starts climbed 12% and completed foreclosures jumped 42%, showing distress moving from early paperwork into actual lender-controlled supply.

CRE Sales Fall as Debt Costs Climb

Commercial real estate sales fell 33% in April as higher Treasury yields and fading rate-cut expectations made debt costs a bigger obstacle, especially for deals underwritten during the low-rate cycle.

FHA Risk Builds Inside Ginnie Mae Portfolios

Ginnie Mae is watching risk-layered FHA portfolios with lower credit scores, higher DTIs, and elevated LTVs, while trial payment plan loans are driving much of the recent FHA delinquency increase.

San Antonio Values Fall as Tax Pressure Builds

San Antonio property values have fallen enough to create a city budget shortfall, but homeowners could still face a tax hike, adding carrying-cost pressure in a market already working through excess supply and weaker buyer urgency.

Small UK Lender Shakes Big Credit Firms

The collapse of Market Financial Solutions left banks and investment firms exposed to hundreds of millions in potential losses, showing how hidden real estate credit risk can spread through private lending and specialty finance.

Read more

Seriously underwater mortgages rose in 45 states over the past year.

Arbor Realty Trust is sitting on roughly $1 billion in nonperforming assets.

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

In Florida, insurance premiums have become a frontline foreclosure driver with average annual premiums hitting $8,292.

In Detroit, a tax relief program that kept 13,000 families out of foreclosure is set to expire.

The equity cushion is getting thinner.

Ownership costs are getting heavier.

And the pressure is already moving from homeowners into lenders, tax offices, and brokerages.

Here is where that stress is turning into foreclosure risk, REO inventory, and weaker housing liquidity:

🏚️ Homeowner Equity Hits a Four-Year Low

🏦 Arbor Is Sitting on $1B in Problem Assets

🌪️ Insurance Costs Are Driving Florida Foreclosures

💸 Detroit’s Tax Relief Backstop Could Expire

📊 RE/MAX Revenue Falls as Debt Hits $436M

Video of the Week: NAR Slashes Home Sales Forecast, Zillow Downgrades Home Price Prediction

Chart of the Week: Multifamily Vacancy Projected to Rise in Q2

Podcast of the Week: A Commercial Lender Just Exposed The Market’s Biggest Problem

Homeowner Equity Plunges to 4-Year Low as Underwater Mortgages Rise

Equity-rich homes fell to 43.3% nationally, the lowest share since Q4 2021, while seriously underwater mortgages rose to 3.2% across 45 states.

The pressure is concentrated in the South, with Baton Rouge posting the worst numbers of any metro — only 17.4% equity-rich and 11.9% seriously underwater.

Arbor Realty Trust Targets $250M-$300M REO by End of 2026

Arbor ended Q1 with roughly $1 billion in nonperforming assets, split between $500 million in delinquencies and $500 million in REO, and is actively targeting $250M-$300M in REO dispositions by year end.

The dividend reset to $0.17 signals the company is prioritizing balance sheet cleanup over shareholder returns.

Insurance Premiums Emerge as Frontline Driver of Florida Foreclosures

Florida’s average annual home insurance premium reached $8,292 in 2025, an 18% increase year over year and roughly 40% higher in Central Florida since 2022.

Premiums have crossed from a budget strain into a direct foreclosure trigger, with Florida now leading the country in foreclosure filings.

A Property Tax Program Kept 13,000 Detroit Families in Their Homes But Now It Could Expire

The Pay As You Stay program erased $52 million in property tax debt and kept 13,000 Detroit families out of foreclosure between 2021 and 2025.

Its expiration in June removes one of the city’s only meaningful foreclosure prevention tools in a market where 31% of senior homeowners are already cost-burdened.

RE/MAX Q1 Financial Results Show $436M Debt, Declining Revenue

RE/MAX reported Q1 revenue of $70.2 million, down 5.7% year over year, alongside a $9.7 million net loss, $436 million in debt, and a U.S. agent count that fell 4.8% to 47,443.

The results reflect a brokerage under sustained pressure from low transaction volume and a shrinking domestic footprint.

Read more

Foreclosure filings are already at their highest level in six years. 119,000 properties received a notice in Q1 2026 alone, up 26% year over year.

Completed foreclosures are up 45% year over year.

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

More properties are now moving all the way through the process to repossession than at any point since before the pandemic.

The protection is gone and the filings are already moving.

🚨 The Federal Foreclosure Backstop Is Gone

📉 Insurance Premiums Are Up 64% Since 2021

⚖️ Foreclosure Auctions Hit a Six-Year High

🏦 KKR Flags Its Riskiest Loans and Cuts Its Dividend

🔑 An HOA President Stole $11 Million From 18,000 Residents

Video of the Week: Inflation Is Crushing Homeowners’ Equity in 2026

Chart of the Week: Increase in Homes With Foreclosure Filings

Podcast of the Week: How to Fail on Your First Rental Property

Trump Ends Federal Foreclosure Protection Measures

The federal backstop keeping distressed homeowners out of the foreclosure pipeline has been wound down.

Filings are at a six-year high and completed REOs are up 45% year over year.

Soaring Home Insurance Costs Add Pressure to Housing Affordability

Average homeowner premiums have climbed 64% since 2021.

The pressure is hitting hardest in markets where mortgage debt is already elevated, adding a second layer of carrying cost strain on owners already under pressure.

Which housing markets have the most—and least—mortgage distress right now?

Early-stage delinquencies have been rising since 2022, with the clearest stress showing up in Louisiana and Mississippi rather than the biggest pandemic boomtowns.

Federal Buildings Sell at Fire-Sale Prices

Federal office distress is turning into real disposition activity, but the lack of a coordinated redevelopment plan is creating risk around pricing, financing, and long-term value.

Residents Speak Out as HOA President Pleads Guilty in $11 Million Scam

An HOA president ran a sham vendor scheme across an 18,000-resident Miami community for four years.

Residents lost homes to fraudulent foreclosures while the board controlled access to financial records the law already required them to disclose.

Read more

That is a $5.1 billion real estate debt portfolio actively pushing troubled loans out the door to chase liquidity.

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

Also, foreclosure auction volume climbed 33% in the same quarter across 45 states.

That supply is sitting at its highest level in six years and it is still building.

Here is where the inventory is concentrating and what auction pricing looks like right now:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🔔 Auction Supply Hits Its Highest Level in Six Years

📋 KKR Dumps Troubled Loans and Slashes Its Dividend

🔺 NYC Landlords Are Being Squeezed Out

💰 Starwood Freezes $22B and Cuts Distributions

🏗️ Sun Belt Landlords Are Paying Tenants to Stay

Video of the Week: Florida Just Hit a DANGEROUS TIPPING POINT

Chart of the Week: Concessions Hit a 10-Year High

Podcast of the Week: Tax Liens vs Rentals

Foreclosure Auction Volume Up 33% in Q1 to a Six-Year High

Distressed inventory is moving from filings into actual sale events at a pace not seen since before the pandemic, with buyer price demand still below pre-pandemic levels in most markets.

KKR Mortgage REIT Slashes Dividend, Accelerates Troubled Loan Resolution

Institutional deleveraging at this scale feeds the same distressed pipeline retail investors are watching, with Minneapolis, Chicago, and Philadelphia loans already flagged at the highest default risk rating.

A Perfect Storm of Costs Is Squeezing NYC Landlords to the Brink

Small private owners are being slowly squeezed out of the market before the city has any replacement for what they provide, which is the bulk of rent-stabilized affordable housing stock.

Starwood Halts Redemptions at SREIT, Says Now Is Not the Time to Force Sales

Secondary buyers are already circling, offering to buy SREIT shares at discounts of 22% to 25%, which tells you where sophisticated money thinks the real value sits.

Concessions Intensify in High-Growth Markets as Competition Heats Up

The pressure is concentrated in Sun Belt and Mountain West markets where supply outpaced demand hardest, with Austin, Denver, San Antonio, Jacksonville, and Tampa leading the list.

Read more

Foreclosure filings jumped 26% year over year in the first quarter, while bank repossessions surged 45% as homeowner stress moved deeper into the system.

Auction volumes hit a six-year high, and scheduled foreclosure auctions rose 11% from the prior quarter, pointing to more distressed supply still working its way forward.

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

That pressure is also hitting prices: seller profit margins are at their lowest level since 2021, and condo values just posted their second-largest drop on record.

Here’s where financial pressure is turning into foreclosure supply, and where the pipeline is moving first:

In this edition of the AltReports:

⚠️ 118,000 Homes Hit Foreclosure Risk

📂 Foreclosure Starts Fill the Pipeline

🏚️ Auction Supply Reaches Six-Year High

📉 Seller Profits Lose Their Cushion

🌊 Condo Prices Crack Under Pressure

Video of the Week: The 90-Day Foreclosure Wave

Chart of the Week: Retail Vacancy by Property Type

Podcast of the Week: The War Has Changed the Housing Market

Foreclosure Pressure Hits 118,000 Homes

118,727 properties had a foreclosure filing in Q1, up 26% from a year ago, while bank repossessions jumped 45% to 14,020.

The bigger signal is that household financial stress is moving deeper into the foreclosure process, especially in South and Midwest markets like Indiana, South Carolina, Florida, Delaware, and Illinois.

Foreclosure Filings Accelerate as the Pipeline Tightens

Foreclosure starts rose 20% year over year to 82,631 properties, while March filings alone hit 45,921, up 28% from last year.

The key detail is that timelines are shrinking while volume rises, which means servicers, attorneys, and REO vendors are dealing with more distressed inventory moving through a faster process.

Auction Volumes Hit a Six-Year High

Completed foreclosure auctions rose 10% from the previous quarter and 33% from a year ago, bringing auction activity closer to pre-pandemic levels.

The investor signal is that distress is moving from filings into actual sale events, with scheduled foreclosure auctions up 11% quarter over quarter and more supply likely to flow through in coming quarters.

Seller Profit Margins Fall to a Five-Year Low

Homeowners made a 44.1% return on typical sales in Q1, down from 50.2% a year earlier and the lowest profit margin since the first quarter of 2021.

That matters because the equity cushion is thinning in key markets, especially in Florida metros like Ocala, Punta Gorda, Lakeland, and North Port-Sarasota, where profit margins fell sharply.

Condo Prices Post Their Second-Largest Drop

The median U.S. condo sale price fell 2.2% year over year in May, while condo sales dropped 11.9% and active condo supply hit the highest level in a decade.

The bigger signal is that HOA fees, insurance costs, special assessments, and weak buyer demand are turning condos into one of the clearest pressure points in the housing market, especially across Florida and Texas.

Read more

For a while, the pressure was building in places most investors could ignore.

It was sitting in servicing pipelines, delayed foreclosures, and extended office loans.

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

Now that pressure is starting to break into the open, with foreclosure starts rising, repossessions climbing, and office delinquencies pushing back toward record territory.

Home sales are still sluggish and mortgage demand is still thin, which means there is less room for fresh distress to pass through quietly.

In this edition of the AltReports:

🔨 Foreclosure Pressure Starts Breaking Through

🏢 Office Loans Slip Closer to the Edge

🏠 Home Sales Stay Soft as Inventory Builds

💸 Mortgage Demand Still Looks Too Thin

⛽ Moving Costs Start Squeezing Sellers Too

Video of the Week: Equity Rich Owners Are LOSING THEIR HOMES TO FORECLOSURE

Chart of the Week: Delinquencies Hit a New Cycle High

Podcast of the Week: How A $30K Property Turned Into Financial Freedom

Foreclosure Filings Accelerate as the Backlog Starts Moving

118,727 properties had a foreclosure filing in Q1, up 26% from a year ago, while starts rose to 82,631 and REO repossessions climbed 45% to 14,020.

The bigger signal is that timelines are shrinking at the same time volumes are rising, which means delayed distress is finally starting to move through the system.

Office Delinquencies Push Back Toward Peak Stress

U.S. CMBS delinquencies rose to 3.43% in March, but the real move came from office, where the delinquency rate jumped 69 basis points to 8.76%, the second-highest level on record.

Four of the five largest new delinquencies were office loans, which tells you exactly where refinance stress is still hitting hardest.

Existing-Home Sales Fell Again as Inventory Kept Rising

Existing-home sales fell 3.6% in March to a 3.98 million annual rate, while unsold inventory rose to 1.36 million units and a 4.1-month supply.

Sales are still sluggish, prices are still holding up, and that leaves the market with less room to absorb fresh distress quietly.

Mortgage Demand Is Still Soft Even After Rates Eased

Mortgage applications slipped another 0.8% last week, and purchase applications were down 7% from a year ago, the first annual decline since early 2025.

That tells you demand is stabilizing at a weaker level, not snapping back, which matters when more distressed supply starts coming through.

Diesel at $5 Is Raising the Cost of Moving Right Into Spring

Diesel just hit $5 per gallon for the first time since December 2022, pushing up costs for movers at the same time high mortgage rates are already slowing transactions.

That combination means fewer moves, higher moving costs, and more friction for households already stretched by housing expenses.

Read more

The borrower ran out of time.

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

The same thing is happening across multifamily real estate right now.

For three years, lenders kept kicking the can on troubled loans, waiting for interest rates to fall so borrowers could refinance.

That wait is over.

$300 billion in multifamily loans come due this year, and borrowers keep coming back to their lenders with the same answer: the numbers do not work.

The CMBS special servicing rate just hit 11%, the highest it has been in over a year.

Office and multifamily loans both saw sharp increases in a single month.

On the home loan side, 878,000 borrowers are now seriously behind on payments or in foreclosure, the highest number since 2018.

Two property types. Two pipelines. Both filling up at the same time.

The investors who know where distressed deals are building right now are the ones who buy at the best price.

Here’s where the deals are forming:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🏢 CMBS Distress Finds Its Next Targets

🏠 FHA Stress Starts Breaking Through

📦 Unsold Homes Keep Piling Up

🌪️ Insurance Costs Start Forcing Sales

🏘️ Multifamily’s Refi Wall Is Here

Video of the Week: How He Bought A 14-Unit With No Money Down

Chart of the Week: Multifamily Investors Pivot to Oversupply Risks

Podcast of the Week: Oil Shock, CMBS Issuance and Private Credit Signals

CMBS Special Servicing Rate Hits Highest Level in Over a Year

The CMBS special servicing rate just climbed to 11%, its highest point in over a year.

Office and multifamily loans drove the move, each posting nearly 45 basis point increases in a single month.

Here is what the loan-level data says about where distress is concentrating next.

FHA Delinquencies Push Seriously Distressed Loans to Highest Level Since 2018

878,000 borrowers are now seriously behind on payments or in foreclosure, the highest number since 2018, and FHA loans drove more than 80% of that increase.

Cure rates among FHA borrowers dropped sharply since last summer, pointing to a specific segment now running out of options.

This is where residential distress is building fastest.

52% of Homes Have Been Sitting Unsold for 60 Days or More

That represents $347 billion in unsold inventory and 630,000 more sellers than buyers.

Some of those sellers are getting anxious, and anxiety creates a very specific kind of opportunity for buyers who know where to look.

Find out where stale listings are concentrating and what that means for pricing.

Insurance Premiums Rose 70% Since 2019 and Are Now Pushing Mortgages Into Delinquency

A Dallas Fed study found that rising premiums pushed roughly 31,000 mortgages into delinquency in 2022 alone.

The households least able to absorb that increase are concentrated in specific markets, and those markets overlap with something distressed investors will want to see.

See which markets are tipping toward forced sales.

$300 Billion in Multifamily Debt Matures This Year. Lenders Are Done Waiting.

$300 billion in multifamily debt matures this year alone, and borrowers who counted on refinancing into a lower rate environment are running out of options.

The distress showing up in CMBS data right now is only the visible portion of what is moving through the system.

Read the full breakdown inside.

Read more

It got a rate spike instead.

Sales are slipping, prices are flattening, and inventory is rising because homes are sitting for longer.

That is the kind of setup that starts squeezing anyone who needed a quick sale or easy exit this season.

Here’s where weaker sellers are getting squeezed first:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🏠 The Great Stall Is On

📉 New Home Sales Plunge to 3-Year Lows

🏘️ America’s Rental Market Is Splintering

📈 Mortgage Rates Snap Higher Into Spring

📍 Affordability Is Still Broken in Most Markets

Video of the Week: Nearly 14% of pending sales in February were cancelled

Chart of the Week: Metros With The Mos Canceled Sales

Podcast of the Week: How These Investors Find Million-Dollar Wholesale Deals

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

The Great Stall Is On

The spring market was supposed to bring momentum back, but more of the country is sliding into stagnation as prices flatten, hot markets cool, and activity slows.

The headline is the stall, but the real signal is that housing is entering its busiest season with weaker demand and a much smaller margin for error.

New Home Sales Plunge to 3-Year Lows

Builders started the year with a stronger setup, then January took a big chunk out of it as sales fell and supply piled up.

New home sales dropped 17.6% month over month, months of supply jumped to 9.7, and prices moved lower as softer demand started showing up in the numbers.

America’s Rental Market Is Splintering Under Affordability Pressure

The rental market is starting to look less like one national story and more like a map of who can still move, who is doubling up, and who is stuck in place.

The headline is affordability stress, but the real signal is that housing pressure is spreading across renters too, which matters when the whole market depends on mobility to keep flowing.

Mortgage Rates Snap Higher Right as Spring Begins

What looked like a decent spring setup got interrupted fast when mortgage rates jumped back up just as buyers were supposed to come off the sidelines.

Rates hit 6.53%, active inventory rose because homes were sitting, and the market started looking less like a seasonal rebound and more like a slowdown happening in real time.

Affordability Is Still Broken Across Most of the Country

The slowdown has not made housing affordable. It has just made it slower.

Prices rose year over year in 61.7% of counties and 97% of markets remain less affordable than their historical averages, which means motivated sellers are operating with equity but running out of time.

Read more

BRD is unloading a 14,000-lot Sun Belt pipeline after a Chapter 11 filing tied to failed builder deals and a projected $390 million revenue hit.

Now rates are rising again, with mortgage pricing moving closer to 7% as geopolitical risk pushes yields and oil higher.

That puts even more pressure on the part of the market that depends on confidence, forward demand, and flexible capital.

Land usually finds out first when that confidence starts slipping.

Here is where supply is stacking up and which states are clearing the fastest:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🏗️ BRD’s Fire Sale Hits the Sun Belt

📈 Mortgage Rates Snap Back Toward 7%

🏠 New Home Sales Sink to 3-Year Lows

🔨 BRD’s 14,000 Lots Go to Auction

📍 Indianapolis Flashes a Foreclosure Signal

Video of the Week: 40% Firesale in Florida

Chart of the Week: Office Properties Drive CMBS Modification Volume

Podcast of the Week: The 6-Figure Real Estate “Model” That DOESN’T Require Rentals

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

BRD Land & Investment’s Properties Head to the Auction Block

A bankrupt developer is taking more than 14,000 potential home lots to the auction block after builder deals fell apart across the Sun Belt.

The headline is the sale, but the real signal is how quickly land turns into forced inventory when demand pulls back.

Mortgage Rates Now Closer to 7% than 6% as the Iran War Escalates

What looked like a decent spring setup lasted about five minutes.

Rates jumped to 6.62%, purchase apps fell 5%, and the market is back to finding out how much demand was tied to temporary rate relief.

New Home Sales Plunge to 3-Year Lows

Builders came into the year with momentum, then January took a chunk out of it.

New home sales dropped 17.6% month over month, months of supply climbed to 9.7, and prices started sliding with it.

Bankrupt Developer’s 14,000 Lots, Development Sites Going To Auction

BRD’s 14,000-lot pipeline is heading to auction after Chapter 11 turned a development story into a liquidation story.

Lost builder deals, $390 million in projected revenue gone, and a strained capital stack tell you how fast land can get exposed when entry-level demand rolls over.

Indianapolis is #1 For Buyers But Also Ranks High For Foreclosures

One of the country’s most talked-about buyer markets is also one of its stronger foreclosure signals.

The setup sounds attractive until you start asking which neighborhoods are producing the filings and who is getting stuck with the fallout.

Read more

It just sold for $90 million.

Madison Capital and PGIM bought the debt and are taking the building through foreclosure, and the price they paid is now the number every lender and office owner in that city has to reckon with.

Builders who spent two years offering rate buydowns and closing cost credits are now cutting prices outright, with Lennar dropping its average selling price 10% year over year to $386,000 in Q4 2025.

Underneath all of it, the foreclosure pipeline is filling, with Notices of Sale jumping 68% year over year in December across Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Here is where auction supply is building and which states are moving the quickest:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🏢 Juul's Tower Sells for 75% Off

📋 Office CMBS Hits an All-Time High

🔨 Foreclosure Pipeline Accelerates Into 2026

📉 Flip Profits Hit a 17-Year Low

🏠 Builders Cut Prices for the First Time in History

Video of the Week: Home Prices About to Face MASSIVE Pressure

Chart of the Week: Office Set an All-Time Delinquency High

Podcast of the Week: The 2026 CRE Credit Squeeze: Banks Are Saying “No” While Other Lenders Say ‘Yes’!

Passive Cash-Flowing Properties

Buy shares of investment properties, earn rental income & appreciation for anywhere from $100 to $20k — let Arrived take care of the rest.

Browse Properties

Foreclosure Auctions Surge as Pipeline Accelerates Into 2026

Notices of Sale jumped 68% year over year in December 2025, with 23,235 recorded nationwide as properties advance rapidly from early filings into auction-stage activity.

Texas led all states with 4,104 notices in a single month, while North Carolina more than doubled year over year and Ohio surged 75%, signaling that distress is no longer building quietly but converting into actionable inventory at speed.

Office CMBS Hits All-Time Delinquency High as Debt Wall Bites

The overall CMBS delinquency rate rose to 7.47% in January 2026, with office hitting an all-time high of 12.34% and special servicing reaching 17.11%.

The dominant driver is maturity defaults, with loans that are still cash-flowing but unable to refinance at today’s rates, creating a wave of distressed assets where borrowers are negotiating extensions rather than resolving the underlying problem.

San Francisco Office Tower Sells at 75% Discount as Price Discovery Accelerates

Madison Capital and PGIM purchased the debt on Juul’s former 29-floor San Francisco headquarters at roughly $90 million, against the $397 million Juul paid at peak in 2019, and are taking possession through foreclosure on a building that is now 87% vacant.

That transaction is the latest in a series of 60% to 80% discount sales in San Francisco, establishing a new pricing reality that lenders and owners across the market now have to mark against.

Home Flipping Profits Fall to Lowest Level Since the Great Recession

The typical home flip in 2025 generated a 25.5% return on investment, the lowest since 2008, as gross profit per flip dropped to $65,981 from $77,000 the prior year despite record home prices.

The home flipping rate fell in two thirds of metro areas and total flips declined to their lowest volume since 2020, as tightening margins and high acquisition costs push operators out of the market and reduce competition at the auction level.

Builders Cut Prices Outright as Affordability Crisis Deepens

Lennar cut its average selling price 10% year over year to $386,000 in Q4 2025, the lowest level since 2017, as nearly one in five new homes nationwide faced a price reduction.

Builders who spent two years using rate buydowns and closing cost credits to attract buyers are now competing on price directly, with the steepest cuts concentrated in Nevada, Texas, and the Carolinas where new construction inventory has been building for years.

Read more

The loan you wrote at 3% is sitting on a table next to a renewal offer at 7%, the floors above you are dark, and the rent coming in covers the old payment but not the new one.

Analysts are calling this the sorting year, the point where lenders across the country stop pretending and start deciding what to do with between $875 billion and $1.15 trillion in commercial loans that have run out of road.

At the same time residential foreclosure filings just recorded their 12th consecutive month of annual increases with completed foreclosures up 35% year over year.

Two waves of distressed inventory are converging at the same time and here is where stress is building fastest, which markets are cracking first, and why this matters for investors:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🏢 $1T Debt Wall Cracks Open

🏠 Foreclosure Pipeline Keeps Building

⚠️ Risk Markets Are Concentrating

📉 Supply Surges, Demand Stays Frozen

📊 K-Shape Splits CRE In Two

Video of the Week: Why CRE Could Trigger the Next Financial Shock

Chart of the Week: Special Servicing Rate Hits 11.1%, 2nd Highest Level Since GFC

Podcast of the Week: The Multi-Million Dollar Mistake Most CRE Investors Make

$1 Trillion in Commercial Loans Are Hitting Maturity in the Worst Refinancing Environment in a Generation

Loans written at 3 percent are now facing renewal offers at 6 to 7 percent, and the “extend and pretend” strategy that kept borrowers afloat through 2024 and 2025 has run out of road. Analysts are calling 2026 the sorting year, the point where lenders begin separating properties that can survive from those heading toward distressed sales, restructuring, or foreclosure, with CMBS office delinquencies already above 12 percent.

Foreclosure Pipeline Records Its 12th Consecutive Month of Annual Increases

Completed foreclosures are up 35 percent year over year and foreclosure starts are up 14 percent, with Texas, Florida, and California leading the country in volume. In Lakeland Florida one in every 1,075 homes carries a foreclosure filing, and with 38,840 properties in active foreclosure proceedings the pipeline is building steadily with no sign of reversal.

Softening Prices, Rising Foreclosures, and Unemployment Are Converging on the Same Markets

Florida now leads the country with 16 of the 50 riskiest counties, defined by the combination of high foreclosure rates, rising unemployment, seriously underwater mortgages, and affordability strain consuming more than a third of annual wages. In the worst markets one in every 294 homes carries a foreclosure filing, and counties across Florida, South Carolina, and New Jersey are where distressed inventory is concentrating most visibly.

Supply of Single-Family Homes Surges to a 9-Year High as Demand Stays Frozen

Existing single-family home sales are running 22 to 29 percent below 2022 levels across every region of the country, while supply has climbed to its highest level for February since 2017. Prices that exploded 41 percent between 2020 and 2022 have barely moved in three months, keeping conventional buyers sidelined and putting sellers who need to transact under increasing pressure to accept terms.

The K-Shaped Economy Is Splitting CRE Into Winners and Losers

Premium retail, resort hotels, and experiential assets are holding up while mass-market commercial properties deteriorate, and analysts warn that an economy driven by asset wealth effects is uniquely exposed when markets pull back. The risk for CRE investors is concentration — when investment capital clusters around a narrow set of sectors, asset values across the rest of the market can fall sharply with very little warning.

Read more

The top reason was avoiding foreclosure.

That same week, mortgage rates crossed below 6% for the first time in years, then reversed 13 basis points in a single session after Iran strikes pushed Treasury yields back above 4%.

Distressed inventory builds quietly in data like this before it ever hits an auction block.

Here is where it is concentrating right now:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🏦 Retirement Accounts Crack

🏠 Sales Freeze Deepens

📈 Rates Whiplash Back

💸 Services Inflation Surges

🏢 CRE Risk Concentrates

Video of the Week: The 401K Housing Trap Nobody Is Talking About

Chart of the Week: 3x more workers raiding their 401(k)

Podcast of the Week: Slow Flips—Finding Cheap Houses for Mailbox Money

Investor Prompt: Score the Seller Before You Score the Deal

Record 6% of Vanguard Retirement Holders Made Hardship Withdrawals in 2025

Vanguard reported that 6% of 401(k) participants took hardship withdrawals last year, up from 4.8% in 2024 and nearly three times the pre-pandemic average of 2%.

Existing Home Sales Hit Lowest Annual Pace Since 1995 as Affordability Resets Take Hold

Realtors are pushing sellers toward lower listing prices as comparable sales drag appraisals downward, with Houston inventory already at all-time highs.

Mortgage Rates Reversed 13 Basis Points in a Single Session After Iran Strikes

The 30-year fixed rate jumped from 5.99% to 6.12% on March 2nd as Iran conflict pushed 10-year Treasury yields back above 4%, erasing a week of declines that had briefly crossed the psychologically important 6% threshold.

Services PPI Running at 10.2% Annualized as Tariff Costs Move Through Supply Chains

Services PPI spiked 10.2% annualized in January while core goods PPI jumped 8.5%, both the worst readings since 2022, with professional and commercial equipment wholesaling alone rising 14.4% month over month.

K-Shaped Economy Concentrating CRE Risk in a Shrinking Number of Asset Classes

Delta Airlines reported premium cabin sales up 9% while main cabin dropped 7%, a dynamic NYU Stern economist Sam Chandan says mirrors the concentration risk now building across commercial real estate.

Paid members: this issue includes an Investor Prompt that turns any public record search into a distress score before a property hits an auction list.

Read more

One lender already read the writing on the wall and shut down completely this week.

And buyers who showed up to the table this month walked away with $32,000 off list price.

The sellers behind those discounts are running out of options.

Here is where that distressed inventory is starting to move and who is positioned to catch it:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🔑 Discounts Deepen

🏦 Banks Break Point

🚪 Lenders Exit

📉 Demand Hits Floor

👷 Jobs Revised Down

💀 Zombies Concentrate

Video of the Week: Coming Wave Of Distressed Sellers To Tank Home Prices

Chart of the Week: Multifamily delinquencies increased by 3.4x in just two years.

Podcast of the Week: Banks Are Dumping 1000s OF FORECLOSURES Every Month - GET READY

Biggest Buyer Discounts in Over 12 Years Signal Full Shift to Buyer’s Market

The average buyer is now receiving a 3.8% discount off list price, translating to roughly $16,000 on a median priced home, with motivated seller negotiations pushing discounts as high as $32,000.

Banks Holding $7.1 Billion in Seriously Delinquent Multifamily Loans as Loss Cycle Accelerates

Community, commercial, and savings banks are collectively sitting on $7.1 billion in multifamily loans 90 days or more past due, a delinquency rate that has risen to a post-Global Financial Crisis high.

City Lending Closure Signals Tightening Credit Access for Independent Mortgage Banks

Virginia-based City Lending shut down operations after originating $232 million in mortgages over the past year, citing regulatory strain and ongoing consolidation across the independent mortgage banking sector.

Pending Home Sales Hit Record Low as Demand Refuses to Recover

The South and Northeast posted the sharpest monthly declines, and cancellation rates remain elevated as buyers walk away from contracts over insurance costs and affordability strain.

Job Revisions Signal Deeper Stress Ahead for Commercial Real Estate

The BLS quietly revised 2025 job growth down from 584,000 to 181,000, making it the weakest year for employment growth outside a recession since 2003.

Zombie Foreclosures Stay Low But Distressed Pipeline Remains Active

Institutional investor-owned properties are sitting vacant at nearly three times the rate of owner-occupied homes, with Indiana, Illinois, and Alabama leading vacancy levels across investor portfolios.

Read more

A data center developer came in right behind that and paid nearly $1 million per house to knock down an entire subdivision.

That is the capital now sitting across the table from residential developers on land acquisition.

And while that is happening at the top end, investors are already accounting for 30% of all single family home purchases across the country.

New listings are down 1.7%. Pending sales are down 5.8%.

The typical home is sitting 67 days before it goes under contract.

So what you have is a market where the conventional entry points are getting absorbed from both ends at once.

The investors who are still closing are doing it through semi-private networks and off-market deal flow that runs completely parallel to what shows up on any portal.

Here is where that deal flow is concentrating and what the investors still acquiring are doing differently:

Kingscrowd is raising on StartEngine to build a one-stop solution for anyone navigating the private markets.

We provide research, data, and tools to help people find, research, and track their next startup investment.

Join over 4,000 investors who have joined us on our mission.

See the current campaign on our StartEngine offering page.

Find out more

This Reg CF offering is made available through StartEngine Primary, LLC.

This investment is speculative, illiquid, and involves a high degree of risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment.

In this edition of the AltReports:

🗺️ Off-Market Goes Mainstream

💻 Big Tech Takes Land

📊 Investors Hold Steady

🏠 Sales Hit New Low

⏳ Deals Stall Out

Video of the Week: 2026 Price Wars Have Begun

Chart of the Week: Investor Single-Family Homebuying Share Hits 5yr High

Podcast of the Week: How to Win Pre-Foreclosure Listings

Off-Market Deals and Investor Demand Are Reshaping Residential Real Estate

The U.S. real estate market is being restructured by off-market ecosystems, small investor activity, and semi-private deal networks operating outside the MLS.

Fix-and-flip operators, wholesalers, and small investors are increasingly acquiring homes in the $100,000 to $300,000 range through channels that bypass traditional portals entirely.

Big Tech Is Buying Up America’s Land and Home Builders Cannot Compete

Amazon paid $700 million for land a home builder acquired for just over $50 million, while a data center developer paid nearly $1 million per house to demolish an entire subdivision.

Tech giants are absorbing developable land across Northern Virginia, Texas, Georgia, and Illinois, pricing residential developers out of markets where housing shortages already exceed 75,000 units.

Investor Share of Home Purchases Holds at 30% in 2025

Real estate investors accounted for 30% of all U.S. single family home purchases in 2025, with small and medium investors driving the majority of that activity.

Investors averaging 80,000 to 100,000 purchases per month are using all-cash offers to secure acquisitions below list price while traditional buyers remain sidelined by affordability constraints.

Home Sales Hit 16-Month Low but Stable Rates Offer Hope

Existing home sales dropped to a 16-month low in January as affordability strain persisted across all four regions.

Asking prices remain soft and nearly one in five new homes carried a price cut, with builders competing directly on price to keep transactions moving.

Redfin Reports Pending U.S. Home Sales Fall 5.8%

Pending home sales fell 5.8% year over year during the four weeks ending February 15, the largest decline in a year.

The typical home is now taking 67 days to go under contract, the longest span since early 2019, as would-be buyers remain on the sidelines due to elevated ownership costs.

Read more

Private equity firms and family offices need an institutional edge when evaluating investments.

9fin delivers the debt intelligence that top PE firms use to source distressed opportunities, conduct due diligence, and monitor portfolio risks.

While others wait for broker packages, leading PE firms use 9fin’s AI to spot overleveraged companies, covenant breaches, and refinancing risks in real-time.

Our platform analyzes 4,000+ issuers across leveraged finance, tracking credit deterioration that creates opportunities.

9fin provides institutional-grade coverage across high-yield bonds, leveraged loans, private credit, and CLO markets—the same intelligence restructuring advisors rely on to move first.

How PE firms and family offices use 9fin:

• Deal due diligence: Analyze debt structures before you close

• Distressed sourcing: Identify overleveraged companies before opportunities become competitive

• Portfolio monitoring: Track covenant compliance continuously

• Risk management: Get instant alerts on credit events

• Competitive intelligence: See what sophisticated investors see first

Get Your Free Trial

Request your free 30-day trial and join the leading firms using 9fin to win deals faster.

Foreclosure filings are up from a year ago, and a growing share of those cases is already converting into bank-owned homes as REO inventory surged at the end of 2025.

At the same time, the share of seriously underwater mortgages is edging higher, while office CMBS delinquencies have pushed to a new all-time high.

Even with easing mortgage rates, home sales fell sharply in January and homebuilders are stepping up price cuts as affordability strain and weak demand reshape the market.

Here’s where growing delinquencies are moving from credit reports into foreclosures, bank-owned homes, and discounted listings.

In this edition of the AltReports:

📉 Delinquencies Hit High

🚨 Foreclosures Keep Rising

🏦 REO Supply Surges

🌊 Equity Slips Underwater

🏢 Office Defaults Climb

🏠 Sales Stall Despite Rates

💸 Builders Cut Prices

Video of the Week: 1.5 Million Homeowners Falling Behind-Why It’s Happening now

Chart of the Week: Multifamily Delinquencies Rise Again

Podcast of the Week: Delinquencies, Defaults and Investor Positioning in 2026

Consumer Delinquencies Hit Decade High

Household debt hit $18.8 trillion while delinquencies climbed to their highest level in nearly a decade.

Stress is building across credit cards, auto loans, student debt, and mortgages, with 58,000 new foreclosure notations added in Q4.

Foreclosure Filings Jump 32% Year Over Year

Foreclosure filings rose 32% year over year, with completed foreclosures up 59%.

Delaware, Nevada, and Florida led activity for the 11th consecutive month as rising ownership costs push delinquent borrowers into the foreclosure pipeline.

Bank-Owned Homes Surge as Distress Converts

REO inventory surged 53% in December and nearly doubled year over year.

Florida, California, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas saw the sharpest increases as earlier foreclosure filings convert into lender-owned supply.

Underwater Mortgages Are Rising Again

Seriously underwater homes rose to 3% of mortgaged properties in Q4, up from both the prior quarter and year earlier.

Equity cushions are thinning in multiple states as the trend reverses from recent lows.

Office CMBS Delinquencies Hit New High

Office CMBS delinquencies reached an all-time high in January, pushing the overall rate higher.

Multifamily and retail also climbed, showing commercial credit stress extends beyond offices.

Home Sales Fall Despite Lower Rates

Existing-home sales dropped sharply in January even as mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since late 2022.

The West saw the steepest decline, signaling affordability strain persists regardless of financing conditions.

Builders Cut Prices to Keep Deals Moving

Nearly 1 in 5 new homes carried a price cut in late 2025, making new construction more likely to be discounted than resale inventory.

Cuts are concentrated in the South and West as builders compete on price to move elevated inventory.

Read more

More scheduled foreclosures are converting to completed auctions, with the roll rate rising to a 14-quarter high of 26.6% as late-stage delinquencies climbed 18.6% year over year.

Properties are moving through the distressed pipeline faster while fewer buyers compete for them at auction.

Credit bid-to-value jumped 351 basis points year over year, widening the spread between what sellers need to recover and what buyers will pay.

Forty-three states posted year-over-year gains in auction volume, led by Florida at 176%, Georgia at 140%, and Texas at 92%.

Here’s where auction supply is concentrating and what today’s pricing tell us about this market:

In this edition of the AltReports:

🏚️ Foreclosure Auctions Surge
📉 Homeowners Fall Behind
🏦 Lenders Tighten, Liquidations Rise

Video of the Week: Here’s How to Profit from Pre-Foreclosures in 2026

Chart of the Week: Foreclosure Auction Demand by State

Podcast of the Week: How to Win at Foreclosure Auctions: Expert Tips & Strategies

Foreclosure Auction Volume Reaches 23-Quarter High

Foreclosure properties brought to auction (BTA) rose 7% quarter over quarter and 48% year over year in Q4 2025, according to Auction.com.

Forty-three states recorded year-over-year increases in foreclosure BTA volume. Texas led with 92% growth, followed by Florida (176%), Georgia (140%), and Illinois (41%).

Late-Stage Mortgage Delinquencies Rise 18.6% Year Over Year

The delinquency rate has risen for five consecutive months, with December marking the highest level since early 2023.

Mortgage delinquencies are now growing faster than other consumer credit categories, signaling specific stress in housing finance.

Mortgage Defects Stabilize as Lenders Face New QC Challenges

As lenders tighten quality control and clean up loan books, fewer files are being kicked down the road.

The bias is shifting from extend-and-pretend toward resolution. In practice, that means more assets moving from servicing limbo into liquidation channels.

Read more

Refinancing pressure is now shaping distress across real estate markets.

Loans are entering special servicing while properties continue operating and collecting rent.

Home sales are breaking down at the contract stage as buyers reassess affordability late in the process.

Owners are adjusting prices and pursuing alternative financing as traditional capital grows selective.

Here’s where liquidity is tightening first and where distressed pricing is starting to surface:

In this edition of the AltReports:

📉 CMBS Stress Spreads

🏠 Office Assets Flip Uses

💰 Alternative Capital Takes Over

📝 Contracts Are Drying Up

❌ Buyers Exit Late

🏗️ Supply Outpaces People

Video of the Week: What CMBS Loan Maturities Reveal About This Market

Chart of the Week: $100B in CMBS Loans Mature This Year. Here’s What’s Ahead

Podcast of the Week: Sellers Are Accepting Lower Final Prices

CMBS Distress Rate Climbs to 11.7%

CMBS distress rose for a third consecutive month as more loans entered special servicing ahead of missed payments. Maturity defaults and refinancing barriers are driving distress across office, multifamily, and retail, including properties with stable occupancy and cash flow.

Office-to-Residential Conversions Accelerate

Office owners are shifting underutilized buildings into residential use at scale. Large conversion projects signal capital repositioning away from legacy office uses as owners seek alternative exits for impaired assets.

C-PACE Lending Sees Record Deal Volume

C-PACE financing is expanding as owners seek long-term, fixed-rate capital secured through tax assessments. The surge reflects demand for alternative financing structures as traditional CRE lending tightens.

Pending Home Sales Slide 9.3% in December

Pending home sales declined across all regions, with the sharpest drops in the Midwest and Northeast. Contract activity weakened even as some prior deals moved to closing, thinning the forward transaction pipeline.

Homebuyers Are Canceling Deals at Record Rates

Over 16% of homes under contract fell out of escrow in December, the highest rate on record for the month. Buyers are exiting transactions late in the process as affordability and inspection issues surface.

California Population Declines While Housing Supply Grows

California’s population has returned to 2017 levels while housing construction continues. Additional supply is entering markets with stagnant population growth, increasing pressure on pricing in select regions.

Read more