🚨 Capital Is Leaving. This Is Where It’s Going
Follow the money, not the headlines
Mortgage refinances surged at the end of 2025, even as rates suddenly turned higher.
Owners are scrambling for liquidity before financing windows close.
At the same time, pending home sales plunged nationwide.
But here’s the disconnect most investors are missing: activity is picking up on the financing side just as buyers disappear from the market.
Condo prices are down the most since 2012, CRE prices edged lower driven by downtown office, yet price relief is not translating into liquidity.
These stories point to a market where assets are repricing but capital is retreating, not rotating.
Q4 foreclosure rates show where the stress is already surfacing.
Here’s where liquidity has dried up and where distressed pricing is starting to shift:
In this edition of the AltReports:
🧊 Volume freezes nationwide now
📈 Pipeline fills, deals delayed
🚪 Exit doors just closed
🏢 Big money already positioned
💰 Yield opportunities finally emerging
🔮 Office shows residential future
Video of the Week: California Banks on Brink of Collapse, $47 Billion in Real Estate Loans Going Bad
Chart of the Week: Pending Home Sales Fall to Lowest Level Since 2020
Podcast of the Week: Cash-Strapped Owners Want Out Of South Florida Vintage Condos
Pending Home Sales Hit Record Lows in Key Markets
Pending home sales have collapsed across the US, with the Midwest hitting a record low and the Northeast recording its second worst dip.
That crash is choking off regular deals and forcing sellers to slash prices.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Build off-market seller relationships now while volume is frozen and competition is absent.
Foreclosure Rates Spike as Homeowners Crack Under Pressure
Foreclosure starts are surging in places like Florida, Illinois and New Jersey, signaling that borrowers are finally buckling under rising rates and inflation.
That uptick is accelerating the pipeline of distressed properties, with states like Illinois and D.C. seeing starts jump nearly 50 percent year over year.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Track foreclosure filings in Illinois, Florida, and New Jersey today to position for inventory arriving in late 2026.
Refinance Window Slams Shut as Rates Jump Again
Homeowners flooded the market to refinance at bargain rates, but lenders are now yanking mortgage rates sky-high.
This abrupt jump is choking off refinancing and dragging monthly payments back up.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Reach out to trapped homeowners who missed the refinance window and need exit options.
Institutional Funds Quietly Deploy Capital into Distressed Multifamily
Sunbelt multifamily markets are getting hammered by post-pandemic oversupply and looming debt maturities that are crashing rents and occupancy.
A new $2 billion opportunistic fund is gearing up to buy these underperforming properties at deep discounts across high-growth metros.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Win deals through speed and local market knowledge before they reach institutional buyers already circling distressed multifamily.
Why Condos Are Becoming the Best Cash Flow Play
Condo markets are broken with empty units piling up, rents dropping, and cash flow nowhere to be found.
Developers and owners are slashing prices to unload properties and hemorrhaging on carrying costs.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Focus on markets where rent-to-price ratios support sustainable cash flow instead of chasing distressed pricing alone.
Commercial Real Estate Shows How Frozen Markets Reprice
Office real estate got hammered in Q1, dropping 1.8% nationally and seeing Boston suffer the steepest hit with a 4% decline.
Lenders are pulling the plug on new office loans, tenants keep ghosting their spaces, and fire sales are lining up.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Watch for similar residential price adjustments over the next two quarters as this office pattern repeats.