🚨 Deals Are Dying Before They Ever Close
Financing is failing late in the process
Capital is moving, but it is moving carefully.
Refinancing pressure is now shaping distress across real estate markets.
Loans are entering special servicing while properties continue operating and collecting rent.
Home sales are breaking down at the contract stage as buyers reassess affordability late in the process.
Owners are adjusting prices and pursuing alternative financing as traditional capital grows selective.
Here’s where liquidity is tightening first and where distressed pricing is starting to surface:
In this edition of the AltReports:
📉 CMBS Stress Spreads
🏠 Office Assets Flip Uses
💰 Alternative Capital Takes Over
📝 Contracts Are Drying Up
❌ Buyers Exit Late
🏗️ Supply Outpaces People
Video of the Week: What CMBS Loan Maturities Reveal About This Market
Chart of the Week: $100B in CMBS Loans Mature This Year. Here’s What’s Ahead
Podcast of the Week: Sellers Are Accepting Lower Final Prices
CMBS Distress Rate Climbs to 11.7%
CMBS distress rose for a third consecutive month as more loans entered special servicing ahead of missed payments. Maturity defaults and refinancing barriers are driving distress across office, multifamily, and retail, including properties with stable occupancy and cash flow.
Office-to-Residential Conversions Accelerate
Office owners are shifting underutilized buildings into residential use at scale. Large conversion projects signal capital repositioning away from legacy office uses as owners seek alternative exits for impaired assets.
C-PACE Lending Sees Record Deal Volume
C-PACE financing is expanding as owners seek long-term, fixed-rate capital secured through tax assessments. The surge reflects demand for alternative financing structures as traditional CRE lending tightens.
Pending Home Sales Slide 9.3% in December
Pending home sales declined across all regions, with the sharpest drops in the Midwest and Northeast. Contract activity weakened even as some prior deals moved to closing, thinning the forward transaction pipeline.
Homebuyers Are Canceling Deals at Record Rates
Over 16% of homes under contract fell out of escrow in December, the highest rate on record for the month. Buyers are exiting transactions late in the process as affordability and inspection issues surface.
California Population Declines While Housing Supply Grows
California’s population has returned to 2017 levels while housing construction continues. Additional supply is entering markets with stagnant population growth, increasing pressure on pricing in select regions.