Major turning point? ⤴️
Strange place indeed. Let's break it down 👊🏼
We’re at a potential turning point in the market on multiple fronts the ramifications of which are yet unknown.
Today we’ll dig in.
🧹 Housekeeping
📈 Stonks ↗
😱 Market indicators
🏢 Big trouble
🤨 Head scratcher + shocking stats
💵 Turning point
🤔 Thoughts on “best investments” today
Here’s your Sunday briefing to make you a better investor.
7 minutes. Strap in. 👇🏼
🧹 Housekeeping
The #AltReports Radio show (now on Apple and Spotify 🎉) is in full swing.
I’m interviewing investors, CEOs, and fund managers in alternative assets and I’m asking them everything you’d want to know before deciding to invest.
We have more than 2 months of shows scheduled, released each Thursday, and I cover investing in things like watches, income share agreements, tokenized real estate, hands-free STRs (short term rentals) and more.
If you like the show please make sure to leave a review if you want more. This season is a pilot season to see who cares so your review is important for the show to continue.
📼 Some of our interviews have visual components so we’ve got a YouTube channel where you can see it all.
Remember, this is not investment advice.
📈 Stonks
Last week brought plenty of volatility in the stock market which gapped down on Monday, sliding further on Tuesday before seeing an enormous bounce of over 3.62% on Powell’s speech Wednesday.
The S&P briefly broke through a downward trend line that has dogged it since January 4th this year before settling just below at $4,071.
The trend line is important psychologically but so is the fact that we are now above the 200 day moving average again (pink line below) which is widely used as an indicator and frequently serves as a point of support or resistance.
The next big resistance looks like its in the $4150/$4160 range (blue line).
Technicals indicate that it is entirely possible that we are queueing up for a bull run…
Why indeed.
😱 Market Indicators
I’m going to get into the Fed in just a minute but let’s look at some facts and data to get a grip on this:
Americans are still spending like drunken sailors which does NOT bode well for inflation and is the opposite of what Powell is looking for.
Gains made in personal savings since 2008 have been completely wiped out knocking us back to the depths of the financial crisis.
The inversion of the 10/2 Year yield curve is one of the most reliable indicators of a recession that there is.
It is now the most inverted its been since Jimmy Carter was president which was also one of our countries most difficult, longest, indeed “double dip” recessions.
I mean… hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s have reached a “concerning all time high” according to Vanguard and Fidelity is echoing the same.
There’s no two ways about it. This is a 💩 sandwich.
I mean its bad. And I haven’t gotten to the worst part yet.
So…
I think you should take a moment and watch this dog eat a carrot before we go any further.
Alright, lets get on with it.
🏢 Real Estate
This week I found out that Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (huge), one of the REITs that I own, is limiting redemptions. BOO.
The Financial Times reports that Cushman & Wakefield, the number two CRE broker in the United States, is engaged primarily in “triage” in office. Occupancy in office space in NYC remains below 50 percent 🤯 and anything less than Class A is is in no man’s land.
And I wish that was it but it’s not. Here’s what else 👇🏼