🚨 Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 51%
Buyer leverage is rising as sellers, borrowers and flippers face growing pressure across the market
Sellers now outnumber buyers by 51% nationwide, and homes are selling below asking in 38 of the 50 largest U.S. markets.
Miami sits at the extreme end, with 154% more sellers than buyers and homes trading 4.7% below asking, while Florida and Texas hold the deepest discounts.
That imbalance is showing up in loan performance too, as FHA serious delinquencies jumped 227 basis points from a year ago and the broader serious delinquency rate rose for a fourth straight quarter.
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The same pressure is building at the commercial level, where CMBS distress climbed to 7.86% in July and $65 billion in loans mature by year-end, leaving some owners to choose between injecting fresh equity and handing back the keys.
Flippers are catching the squeeze from both sides, taking longer to sell across Texas and the Southeast just as Texas homeowners absorb insurance premiums that climbed 30% in five years.
Here’s where buyer leverage is growing fastest and where owners are running out of room:
📉 38 Major Markets Sell Below Asking
⚠️ FHA Serious Delinquencies Continue to Climb
💸 $65B CMBS Maturity Wall Hits
🔨 Fix-and-Flip Market Weakens
👥 U.S. Homebuyers Hit Record Low
🌪️ Texas Insurance Premiums Jump 30%
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Homes Sell Below Asking in 38 Major Markets
Miami and West Palm Beach post the nation’s steepest discounts, with homes trading roughly 4.6% below asking price.
Rising insurance costs, property taxes, and new construction across Florida and Texas are giving buyers more room to negotiate.
FHA Serious Delinquencies Jump 227 Basis Points
FHA serious delinquencies climbed 227 basis points from a year ago, the sharpest increase among major loan types.
Foreclosure inventory rose to 0.67% even as the overall delinquency rate ticked down slightly for the quarter.
CMBS Distress Climbs as $65B Maturity Wall Hits
CMBS distress rose to 7.86% in July, while commercial property prices climbed 5.2% over the past year.
Owners with $65 billion in loans maturing by year-end face a choice between injecting fresh equity, refinancing at higher rates, or handing the keys back to lenders.
Fix-and-Flip Market Weakens in Texas and Southeast
The fix-and-flip index fell for a second straight quarter as higher mortgage rates stretch flippers’ selling timelines.
Texas and the Southeast show the clearest strain, with 59% of flippers reporting longer days on market.
Homebuyer Demand Falls to a Record Low
The number of active U.S. homebuyers fell to roughly 967,000 in July, the lowest count on record, while sellers outnumbered them by 51%.
Miami, Nashville, and three Texas metros show the widest gaps between buyers and sellers in the country.
Texas Insurance Costs Outpace Income Growth
Texas homeowners insurance premiums climbed 30% over five years, ten times faster than incomes grew over the same period.
Roughly 7 million Texas households are priced out of the median-priced home in their county, while insurance now consumes nearly 4.7% of household income for the median homeowner.
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