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💥 Real estate chaos = opportunity
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💥 Real estate chaos = opportunity

Rising rates, builder hesitation, and more: Your playbook inside.

May 23, 2025
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💥 Real estate chaos = opportunity
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The spring home-selling season just flatlined — the worst April sales since 2009.

Sellers are drowning in listings, but buyers are nowhere to be found, leaving prices frozen and the market on ice.

Builders are throwing in the towel too, sidelined by soaring costs and zero buyer buzz.

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Fewer new homes mean more pressure on the resale market, but with everything else going sideways, no one’s quite sure what’s coming next.

It’s like watching a game stuck on pause, and nobody wants to hit play.

Now throw in climate risks shutting lenders’ doors on some neighborhoods, global investors pulling back from commercial real estate, and mortgage rates skyrocketing after the credit downgrade.

In this edition of the AltReports:

📉 Spring sales hit worst slump since ’09

🚧 Builders hitting pause amid soaring costs

🌊 Climate risk reshapes lending and values

🌍 Global CRE confidence tumbles amid turmoil

📈 Mortgage rates spike after credit downgrade

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Spring Selling Season Fizzles: Worst April for Home Sales Since 2009

The spring home-buying season hit a new low with the worst April sales slump since 2009.

Housing supply is piling up to levels unseen since 2016, while buyer demand is drying up fast.

Prices are barely moving, leaving sellers stuck in a bind with few eager buyers around.

💡 Investor Takeaway: Focus on markets with rising inventory and hesitant sellers to spot motivated sellers and snag discounted deals.

Builder Confidence Hits Low Point Amid Housing Market Challenges

Builder confidence is plunging amid rising costs and weak consumer demand, signaling a housing slowdown ahead.

Affordable housing shortages and climbing interest rates are driving builders into a tough spot.

If builders are retreating, expect fewer new homes and more opportunities in resale and distressed properties.

💡 Investor Takeaway: Track builder sentiment and supply chain issues to anticipate increased distressed resale inventory.

The Sixth “C” of Credit: Climate Change’s Impact on Lending

Climate change is becoming a critical factor in mortgage lending, with lenders increasingly assessing a home’s vulnerability to disasters.

Properties in flood zones or at environmental risk may face tougher financing or declining value.

Ignoring climate risk can leave investors holding underwater assets when lenders pull back.

💡 Investor Takeaway: Prioritize climate-resilient locations and research environmental risks before investing.

Global Confidence in U.S. Commercial Real Estate Drops Sharply

Global investor confidence in U.S. commercial real estate has dropped sharply amid policy uncertainty and rising interest rates.

International capital is retreating, leaving markets volatile and liquidity drying up.

Investors are scrambling to re-evaluate portfolios as the CRE landscape becomes more unpredictable.

💡 Investor Takeaway: Monitor capital flow shifts and focus on distressed CRE assets where sellers may face liquidity pressure.

U.S. Credit Downgrade Sparks Mortgage Rate Surge

The U.S. credit downgrade triggered a surge in mortgage rates, pushing borrowing costs to painful highs.

Higher rates are sidelining potential buyers and increasing the risk of defaults.

This tightening credit environment could accelerate distressed sales and create buying opportunities.

💡 Investor Takeaway: Watch for rising defaults and stalled buyers to identify emerging distressed property deals.

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