🚨 The Rate Resets Are Hitting
Borrowers banked on lower rates before their buydowns reset. They're still waiting. Now the foreclosure data is telling the story they didn't want to tell
A lot of borrowers bought into pandemic boom towns on temporary rate buydowns, with payments starting at 4.5% in year one and 5.5% in year two before resetting to the full market rate.
They expected to refinance before the reset hit.
The rates never came down, but the resets did.
The State of Private Credit
Private credit built its growth story on software, retail capital, and loose docs.
And right now, all three are under pressure simultaneously.
In our state of private credit 2026 whitepaper, we map where those pressures stand at the halfway point, and where they’re most likely to land in H2.
We look at:
Why secondary markets have quietly become the primary liquidity management tool in direct lending
What the BDC redemption wave actually tells us
The documentation shift happening in new facilities post-First Brands
Q1 2026 data: 540 US deals, spreads back to S+500bps, and what it means that private credit just outpaced BSL on deal count for the first time since Q2 last year
Where the opportunities lie in H2
That pressure is now showing up in the foreclosure data, with filings up 14% from a year ago and Florida now holding the worst foreclosure rate in the country.
It is also showing up in markets like Nashville, Miami, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio, where sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 100%.
Lender-controlled assets are starting to surface too, from a Freddie Mac-owned Austin site heading to auction to bankrupt hotel, office, and multifamily loans moving through foreclosure, special servicing, or the open market.
🏚️ Florida Foreclosures Lead Nation
🏗️ Austin Redevelopment Site Hits Auction
🏦 Lender-Controlled Assets Surface
📉 Boom Towns Turn Buyer-Friendly
📊 Demand Growth Masks Price Cuts
Video of the Week: How to Buy Cheap Rental Properties in ANY Market (Off Market)
Chart of the Week: CMBS Distress Rankings
Podcast of the Week: We Have 1-2 Months Before the Economy Breaks
Florida Leads the Nation in Foreclosures
Foreclosure filings rose 14% from a year ago, with Florida posting the worst foreclosure rate in the country as higher ownership costs, insurance pressure, and rate buydown resets push more borrowers toward default.
Freddie Mac-Owned Austin Site Heads to Auction
A vacant 20-acre apartment redevelopment site in southeast Austin is heading to auction after Freddie Mac took the property back from a defaulted borrower, creating a live test for distressed land pricing in a former boom market.
Lender-Controlled Assets Surface Across Property Types
Bankrupt hotel projects, downtown office towers, special-serviced Manhattan debt, and Freddie Mac multifamily loans are all moving through auctions, foreclosure, or workout activity as lender pressure becomes more visible.
Former Pandemic Boom Towns Turn Into Buyer Markets
Sellers now outnumber buyers by more than 100% in markets like Nashville, Miami, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio, giving investors more negotiating leverage in metros that were once defined by excess demand.
Demand Growth Splits Into Strength and Repricing
Positive sales growth is masking two different markets, with some metros growing from tight inventory and strong absorption while pandemic boom markets rely more heavily on price cuts, concessions, and seller adjustment.
Video of the week