💥 This Wasn't Supposed to Happen Yet
The 2026 CMBS meltdown arrived early. Lenders are trapped with no buyers in sight
Columbia Property Trust just walked away from $1.7 billion in San Francisco office debt, quietly handing the keys to its lender.
This wasn’t a one-off failure.
Special servicers have been modeling exactly this as office and retail CMBS loans crack under permanent shifts from remote work and e-commerce, not a temporary cycle.
Those loans are slamming into maturity walls just as refinancing costs sit 200 to 300 basis points above origination, turning spreadsheet stress into real REO inventory.
Now lenders are trapped in the same decision across dozens of portfolios: bleed through multi-year workouts or dump assets into a buyer pool that’s barely showing up.
Defaults forecast for late 2026 are hitting desks today.
In this edition of the AltReports:
🌊 CMBS Meltdown: Office & Retail Loans Set to Implode in 2026
🏙️ Columbia Hands Keys on $1.7B SF Empire, Lenders Face Fire Sale
⚠️ Foreclosure Tsunami: Sales Notices Explode 27% as Auctions Heat Up
☀️ Sunbelt Trap: Vegas to Miami Overheating, Delinquencies Skyrocket
💸 Affordability Crisis Triggers Foreclosure Boom Across America
📉 Mortgage Demand Collapses 10%, Lenders Drowning in Dead Inventory
⚖️ Zombie Loan Crackdown: Regulators Target Predatory Debt Collectors
Video of the Week: They Are Lying About The 2026 Housing Market
Chart of the Week: 20 Cities Where Downsizing Pays Off the Most
Podcast of the Week: $20 Billion Worth of Sales Knowledge in 57 Minutes
CMBS Default Risks Set to Explode in 2026
Office and retail loans are buckling under remote work and online shopping, priming a wave of CMBS defaults in 2026.
Loans in these troubled sectors are maturing just as higher rates kill any hope of cheap refinancing, flipping the market from caution to chaos.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Research office and retail CMBS loans maturing this year.
Columbia Property Trust Defaults on $1.7B SF Office Loan
Columbia Property Trust defaulted on a $1.7 billion loan backing its San Francisco office buildings, effectively handing the keys to the lender.
With vacancy rates soaring and refinancing dead in the water, the lender now faces fire sales and forced disposals.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Contact the lender or special servicer handling this portfolio to learn about potential sale timelines and property details.
Foreclosure Sale Notices Spike 27% Year-Over-Year
Lenders are dumping more homes into foreclosure, with notice of sales jumping 27% in the last year.
We’re about to see a tidal wave of cheap properties and brutal bidding wars at auctions.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Start attending local foreclosure auctions to understand the current bidding dynamics before competition increases.
Sunbelt Homes Overheat: Top 10 Markets at Risk in Q3 2025
Home prices in ten overheated markets—from Vegas to Miami—are ripping past income growth and sending mortgage delinquencies skyrocketing.
As buyers bail and lenders tighten, these boomtowns are shifting from gold mines to foreclosure pipelines.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Track pre-foreclosure inventories in these top-risk markets now before competition and financing conditions get tighter.
Home Affordability Crater Sparks Foreclosure Boom
Home affordability is busted—our index is down 15% from last year and mortgage payments now gobble over half of median income.
That squeeze is pushing buyers out and kicking off a surge of foreclosures and bargain listings.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Focus on markets where median home payments exceed 50% of local income. These areas often see higher foreclosure rates.
Mortgage Demand Plummets to End 2025
Mortgage demand tanked nearly 10% in December, capping off a brutal end to 2025.
With refinancing drying up and buyers shying away from sky-high rates, lenders are stuck with inventory they can’t unload.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Jump in on distressed home loans now before banks write them off at pennies on the dollar.
Zombie Mortgages Under Fire as Collectors Cash In
Zombie mortgages are broken and debt collectors are scooping up dead home loans, slapping on endless fees, and milking borrowers for millions with little oversight.
Federal regulators and state lawmakers are swooping in with hearings, potential bans, and new rules to clamp down on these predatory debt grabbers.
💡 Investor Takeaway: Treat every zombie loan pool like a ticking time bomb. Do your own legal vetting and factor in looming regulatory shocks.